
Science fiction, and the planet Mars as a preferred antagonist, maps directly to our ability over the second half of the 20th century to improve our understanding of the neighboring red planet. Things really began to click in 1964. It was then that Mariner 4, sent from Earth to Mars, did a close proximity fly-by of the planet and snapped some photos. Like this one:

Really, at the time scientists were not exactly sure what they were going to see. Despite the fact that Mars had been massively researched via telescope from the comfort of Earth, scientists still harbored science fiction induced anxiety about what Mariner might reveal. Old, abandoned and decayed cities? Signs of water? Signs of great alien civilizations? What they saw is pretty much like the image above, and though without the excitement of alien civilization, nonetheless exciting for the Mariner 4 mission team. Granted, space agencies (NASA and ESA) are working overtime to establish that Mars did, in fact, once support life and to find some sort of fossil evidence of this Martian life form. The Chinese and Japanese are getting into the Mars game, with rumors that India and its fledgling space program are as well. Russia wants to get back into Mars exploration after its success in the 1970’s. This is not what I am talking about, though. We will continue to send a proliferation of unmanned probes to explore Mars, but we are at an important jumping off point in regards to our neighboring red planet. Since 1964 there have been 16 successful unmanned missions (and 23 failed missions) to Mars. NASA has a manned mission to Mars in the offing and scheduled for sometime in the range of 2015-2020… budgets permitting. We are closing in on commercial space flight with the advent of the X Prize and Richard Branson’s partnership with Burt Rutan for Virgin Galactic. There is going to be a space hotel for the families of the astronauts on the International Space Station to stay at when they are in town, just kidding… but there is talk of a space hotel. All of this activity, and while it may not have much directly to do with Mars, it is critical. This is because we are increasing our presence and access to orbit around Earth. Easy access to orbit means that the development of an orbital launch position for Mars voyages could come together relatively quickly. Orbital launch positions greatly ease the launch requirements for getting to Mars. Taking off from Earth’s surface is essentially cost prohibitive for such a mission. Launching from orbit is like sending off a cruise ship, so to speak.
So about the time most of us are getting real serious about retirement, humanity will be getting real serious about really visiting Mars. Conservatively, by the time humans are walking on the surface of Mars some sixty years will have passed since Mariner 4 did the first fly by in Mars orbit. Sixty years. We’re talking somewhere around 2025, hopefully sooner… like the 2015-2020 prescribed by President Bush. The effort to send a manned flight to Mars will have spanned my entire life. I guess it already has. Here is some interesting information about that first manned flight to Mars:
- Scientists estimate a one-way transit time to be in the range of 190-225 days
- Planning is for a surface mission of 30-90 days, putting the round-trip at 410-610 days
- For a crew of five astronauts for this duration 6,150-9150 meals will be required
- Food may be sent ahead and pre-positioned on Mars for the return trip
- What if they cannot find it?
- Assuming 1 gallon of water/astronaut per day yields needs of 2050-3050 gallons of water
- Water sources will have to be supplemented by water purification and condensation capture
- There is concern about the dust on the surface of Mars damaging the landing craft
- To enhance communications, they may boost feeds via satellites around Mars and Earth
- As many as 7 supporting unmanned flights may be necessary in advance of the manned mission
- The astronauts will most likely not have the chance to visit any of the robotic rovers already there
- Rough cost estimates put the price of the manned mission around $10-15 billion
references:
NASA Mars Exploration Program
European Space Agency (ESA)