
Anybody who has read Isaac Asimov’s 1950 collection of short stories “I, Robot” is going to immediately understand where I am going with this post. In that collection was the short story “Runaround,” originally written in 1942, that provided some unbelievable foreshadowing to our present reality. By way of review, the biggest take-away from that story was the immutable Three Laws of Robotics:
1. A robot may not injure a human being, or through inaction allow a human being to be harmed.
2. A robot must obey orders given to it by a human being, except where those orders come into conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as this does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
In 1950 Asimov anticipated an imminent dilemma now facing humanity. Benefiting from the incredible advances made in a complicated mix of technologies, robotics has exploded with innovations and advances in the last five years. Historically, robotics has focused on industrial automation tasks, but advances in a diversity of technologies (such as WiFi, sensor arrays, optics, and artificial intelligence precursors) are leading us to new and surreal opportunities… such as human service platforms©. As a result of this, robot populations have exploded. Exponentially. Going back to a NYT’s piece in 1984 titled “Futurists See Growth In Robot Population,” none of us should be surprised by this. The article states (IN 1984!):
“The population of robots in the United States is growing by 30 percent a year, compared to a human population growth rate of only 2 percent annually, according to the World Future Society. The society said there will be 35,000 robots in the United States by 1990.”
So we have Asimov in 1942 eloquently providing a cautious warning of our technological future, and in 1984 we are already seeing predictions of robot population growth outpacing humans in the United States by a factor of 15 times. Believe me, it is more now and at the rate robot populations are increasing we face a reality where there will be more of them than there are of us most probably in my lifetime. That’s interesting to think about. I am not going to waste your time with a parade of lines from science fiction movies or 1960’s television. I am going to lay out some facts regarding robot populations, and projections, that definitely gave me pause… and cause for concern. This in spite of the fact that I am fascinated by robots and optimistic about their relationship with us.
Japan is the best place to start. Japanese companies are far and away the fastest innovators and hardest drivers of robotics technologies. This is partly driven by the reality that their population is shrinking, facing a rapid increase in the elderly and a depleted younger generation not sufficient to replace them in the workforce. The current hope is that robots will mitigate this deficiency in labor force replacement. Back in 2003 410,000 of the world’s 720,000 working robots (around 57%) were in Japan. That is just the “working” robots. The worldwide general robotic population in 2003 was well in excess of 1,000,000. Today, the number of robots in Japan is closer to 40% of the global population, but only because the rest of the world is racing to keep pace. Robotics was, and continues to be, a priority long-term economic strength for the Japanese. You could say that they are the vanguard. During 2003, Honda alone spent in excess of $100 million just to develop the humanoid robot “Asimo,” the goal not being to sell Asimo as a consumer product, but to focus technologies into a prototype to test capabilities, to test limits… and filter them into subsequent products and begin refining for later iterations. A proof of concept for the inception of an intelligent service robotics platform. By 2010 it is anticipated that intelligent service robotics will be a market in excess of $30 billion for Japan. In 2005, it was just over $2 billion. That is a growth market. That is momentum.
This is where concern enters the picture. Robotics are hot everywhere, but Japan is the hot engine at the moment. That engine is posting exponential growth in the market, and paradigmatic shifts in the technologies. There is really no way that we can accurately project where we will be in 2010, 2015 or 2020 both in terms of technological development and in terms of overall robotic populations. If you spend any time researching current robot populations you will be hard pressed to yield any relevant information after 2005. I believe this is because things are happening so quickly. We are definitely seeing this with the deployment of military robotic technologies by the U.S. military. In 2000 robotics were hardly on the agenda at the Pentagon, now it commands enormous R&D budgets and sits at the top of yearly acquisition priorities (in the thousands of robots) for every branch of the military. In 2002 the Pentagon was still debating the virtues of self-propelled artillery. But I digress. In Japan alone you have a nation that is aligning their future with the future of robots. On the one hand, that is truly and genuinely aimed at serving the needs of humanity. On the other, it is what seems to be a rush into a technological arena that is yet undefined, and very much uncharted territory. This brings us back to Asimov’s three laws, which seem almost trite, but are actually of increasing importance as we set about building this semi-autonomous, potentially fully, or even quasi-autonomous workforce. As researchers expend greater effort trying to create robots that develop an autonomous approach to space, time and action we should also expend greater effort understanding what the possible implications of this may mean for humanity. Both good and bad. I am not being alarmist, but advocate for serious consideration by our societies around these issues. Think back to 1990. Think back to 2000. Could you have ever anticipated that we would be facing the situations we face today as they relate to technology, geo-politics, religion and the environment? We face similarly asymmetrical unknowns now, but with implications intensified by our own progress.